Statistics and Models

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Since the early days of the Presidents COVID-19 Task Force, I’ve had a lot of questions of the statistics that are presented during these daily briefings. I’m not implying that I disbelieve them but they’re not presenting the complete story and what’s interesting is that I have never heard one reporter ask about any details within those numbers. I use this site for quick updates about the number of confirmed cases, etc. As of this writing, there are 586,941 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with 23,640 deaths. A lot of mortality and note that that number is a lagging indicator: expect it to go higher, somewhat, before it slows down or even stops. But that’s one number I don’t want to talk about right now.

It’s the former number. what do we actually know about the spread of the virus based on just under 600,000 cases of infection? What I’m getting at is how many are asymptomatic, mild, moderate, and serious? The asymptomatic number, if they have it, is probably low. Why? We’re told to not be tested unless we present with some symptoms as fever, cough, or shortness of breath. But then if a person has come into close contact with someone that has been diagnosed positive, they probably should and have been tested even though they do not have any symptoms. How many present as mild, people that test positive that don’t feel well, but they’re not in need of hospitalization? 10%? 20%? I think that’s something that if they don’t know, they should. I think they actually do know this and I wonder why it’s not broken down during the daily briefings? Also, how many of those have an underlying condition? Remember what they’ve been saying: most serious cases and deaths have a co-morbidity.

The final number we keep hearing about, actually, it’s the one that is touted the most, are the amount of tests for the virus that have been completed. Again, as of this writing, it is around 3,000,000. So positive cases versus the total number of tests completed means…some 80% of people tested do not have the virus, right? As more tests are completed that percentage may change – in either direction, but isn’t the fact that 80% tested do not have the virus a positive, more so than just the  tests themselves? Of course there may be some false negatives just as there may be some false positives. Seriously, are any of these tests for anything 100% accurate? We have to take the word of the task force that these are very accurate, but that leaves room, at least a little, for error.

These are the easy things, I believe, that those reporters in the room could be asking or even better, Dr. Birx could just present if not daily, then how about weekly? The other thing that could happen is the media, instead of having political reporters in the room, use those that have at least some background in science or math. I know it’s probably difficult to find any that’ve had any math class since high school – or earlier, but they should at least make the attempt. Maybe have someone that understands the basics of mathematical models so that the team is forced to explain how, since the beginning, the model used has been so wrong. We can’t get information if it’s not given to us and having  a few people there that understand some of it would at least help ensure were not being given poor information. I understand that models can change, based on the data, as well as the assumptions input. One thing I think they did poorly was to give out these scary estimates of total deaths while their data was mostly incomplete. What were they basing these early estimates  on? “Mitigation” versus “no Mitigation” isn’t an actual answer. It’s a dodge. See? A question that someone on the podium should be able to answer. But, if the question isn’t asked, then we’re never going to receive the full picture.

That we’re all under some level of forced quarantine (that’s a subject I’ll take up soon), then shouldn’t we be getting th e most detailed, accurate information available?

 

4 thoughts on “Statistics and Models

  1. I see your point. But the one and only country in the world no one should trust the numbers on is China.
    The media gave us spoonfed nonsense the other day that the U.S. is leading the world in the most infected and deaths.
    Does anyone with any common sense seriously believe that China is being truthful about their numbers?
    Me either.
    When it first emerged in the city of Wuhan, a responsible government would have dealt with it decisively, but the Chinese Communist Party covered it up to save face, until it was too late to contain it. They arrested anyone who talked about it and they refused all offers of outside help, because saving face is more important to them than saving LIFE. The Chinese Communist Party is directly responsible for every death from this deadly Wuhan virus that they have inflicted on the world. They have always been enemies of the Chinese people. Now they are enemies of all humanity. They knew that the world would be crippled by this virus when they covered it up. But they lied and they lied and they lied again. And they’re still lying now.
    https://web.archive.org/web/20200406190917/https://n5ti.com/health/1233/

    Liked by 1 person

    • I agree with what you’ve said here. China, doing nothing, has caused thousands of death around the world. We actually have no idea how many have died in china. Think about the deaths they’ve reported. Mostly in one place, Wuhan. Do they expect us to believe that only 1 person died in Beijing? What about the other cities with millions of residents? Maybe take their number and multiply it by 100 (conservatively), and that might get us closer to a death total in China.
      In other news, there’s a growing consensus to allow Taiwan into the UN. They sent a letter to the WHO at the end of December that said that the PRC was lying about person-to-person transmission. WHO – another culprit – ignored the letter and just parroted what they were told by the PRC.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Yep. And despite the best efforts of fake news media and the corrupt WHO to shield them from blame, the whole world can see what these people have done, how irresponsible and how dishonest they have been, and they have lost face. Ohhh have they ever. But more importantly, thanks to them China has lost face. Xi Jinping and his party of gangsters have shamed their country in the eyes of the world. They have shown the world that China cannot be trusted, and that as long as they govern it, China should never be trusted or respected again. In the seventy years these people have been in power, they have destroyed much of China’s ancient heritage and tried to force the Chinese people to forget who they really are. They describe their system of government as socialism with Chinese characteristics. As if socialism wasn’t cruel enough. Not that it matters with socialism. Chinese characteristics, Russian characteristics, whatever. Sooner or later people end up in concentration camps. A lot of western culture is currently banned or censored in China, because they know that if they allow free expression their brutal surveillance dictatorship will never survive. This is a huge stupid mistake and a further loss of face on the part of the incompetent Xi Jinping that, by his own brutal standards, he really should have himself shot. Confucius insisted on accurate terminology as the root of good government and an orderly society. So, as this Wuhan virus continues to shut down the world and to shame the Chinese nation in the eyes of the world, I’m wondering what Confucius would make of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. I reckon he’d be wondering when the Chinese People’s Liberation Army are going to live up to their name and actually liberate the Chinese people, instead of standing around with their thumbs up their ass’s waiting for their noodles. Either that or change its name to the more accurate Government of Shame Preservation Army. Then at least poor old Confucius might rest easy.

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  2. I agree that China is not to be trusted in anything, period. We are in this mess and seemingly can only ride out the wave, because it seems as if nobody really has any definitive answers about anything to do with this virus. Why didn’t we panic over the Swine Flu? Did we need to have a Democrat as President to avoid this pain and shutdown? Or, better to ask, if we had a Democrat now, would there have been as much made of this by the MSM and Democrat party? Is this more political than anything else? Or is there something that “they” know that we don’t?

    That China did this to it’s own people is a given. That they kept it undercover for as long as they could is a given. That they have lied and grossly under-reported their actual cases and deaths should be a given. But what the hell do we do about any of it?

    I feel that Trump has been damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t and has been walking a fine line between action and reassurance. I am so very upset that all the people that attack his every word and action and thought about this don’t care that they are actually attacking the health of the nation in this time of apparent emergency. Or don’t they think or believe that it is an actual emergency? It doesn’t make any sense what they are doing to this country. Why haven’t we heard from Obama the Great, who navigated through our Swine Flu epidemic? Surely, his wisdom would be invaluable. Geeze, Trump should have called on him for assistance first thing, then maybe the Left/Media would have pulled back their attack dogs.

    Thanks for the link to the statistic site.

    Liked by 1 person

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