As an American, I’m not up to date with all of the possible pitfalls of Scotland voting for independence from the UK, but since people in the UK like to weigh in on our politics, I’m going to weigh in on theirs.
We in the US are not hearing much about this very important vote except for soundbites from each side of the question. It’s perplexing to most people here I speak with but it does appear to me that there are economic consequences for both the Scots and the British if the vote is “yes”.
Now, as I understand it, if the vote is yes, then it will be 18 months before the separation is final. I would think that would give some time for many of the economic questions to be answered.
The real question for the Scots should be if they want to be a completely independent country. They’ve been effectively “ruled” by the English for over 300 hundred years. On and off before that.
Of course, any country that vies for independence will have problems in the short term. The US did, but over a period of less than a generation having left English rule, prevailed. Those were different times and now we have a multinational economy. Will Scotland be able to integrate? Actually, I think they will.
Let me give one small example. The fall of the Soviet Union and in 1989 the reintegration of East Germany with West Germany. It was difficult for both. It cost West Germany hundreds of billions over some years to integrate the East with them. They have been successful.
Now this is the opposite of course, breaking away. It’s going to affect 2 economies, England and Scotland. Would both countries, over time be able to overcome this change? I think they both would be able to do this even though in the immediate future, it would look like a disaster for both.
I would say to the Scots to not vote based on what may happen in the short term, but what you believe your life and the lives of you children will be in the future. It’s that’s independence, then that’s it. If you’re afraid of the short term economic consequences, then vote no.